Let's Debunk Another Covid Narrative
No, Kids Aren't Being "Hit Harder" by the Michigan Covid Spike.
Having recent discussed my skepticism towards the entire Popular Science Establishment, so I thought I'd debunk another Covid Science narrative using publicly available data:
No, the B117 variant is not "hitting young people harder" in Michigan.
Like many of these fake narratives there is a small grain of truth to it: during Michigan's spring surge in Covid cases as the B117 variant has grown in prevalence young adults and children have represented a larger share of cases. But the two are coincidental and unrelated.
Once we look at the details the real reason for the change in case proportionality becomes obvious. Up until February age under 50 represented ~60% of cases in Michigan and since then the share of cases in that age group has risen to over 70%. Likewise age 60 plus went from 11% of cases before to just 5% since February. Meanwhile the Case Fatality Rates in both groups have edged down, but the ratio between them has remained about the same with age 60+ still over 100 times more likely to die with a Covid case than the under 50 group as a whole. Last year, this Winter and this spring that ratio hasn't changed.
Now why would this be? What age based intervention have we started to conduct on the old that would dramatically reduce cases but not affect CFR? Anyone...?
The answer of course is THE VACCINE! Cases are Proportionally down in Michigan's elderly because the vaccine was given to them first. This isn't proof of a "New Dangerous Variant" it's Proof Vaccines Work!!
We see the same pattern across the county everywhere you look, such is in my county of El Dorado County, CA where cases in under 50's also rose from ~60% to over 70% while cases in the elderly dropped from above to below 10% over the same time period.
So to summarize: Cases are up Proportionally among the Young and down Proportionally among the Old due to the age based rollout of the vaccine. The relative CFR's for each group are unchanged, but since the young represent a higher proportion of cases they likewise represent a higher proportion of deaths. (Bare in mind deaths are WAY down as a whole because the CFR is so much higher among the elderly)
The Popular Science Media takes this one little nugget of fact, and ties it to the rising variant prevalence in Michigan to create another fear narrative. But when comparing other states the variant prevalence is not correlated to rising cases nor is the change in age of case proportionality tied to the variant. It's the Vaccine baby!
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