What If We Hadn't Locked Down?
Examining the Counterfactual
Can you imagine what the world would be like had we never locked down? How would the economy have fared? How would the virus have gone? It's impossible to answer these questions without some sort of control group. Luckily we have one, Sweden!
Sweden never locked down, never mandated masks, never closed businesses. They were hit about as hard by the virus as western Europe (some good lockdowns did...) and their economic contraction in Q2 was a little less harsh. 8.6% versus 10 to 15% for western europe. (UK was 20%!)
So in the end you could say lockdowns didn't do much to stop the virus, but also didn't do as much to harm the economy because people on their own spent less and stopped frequenting businesses as much meaning a lot of the downturn was unavoidable.
However, that's only half the story. Sweden is now nearly completely unrestricted and their economy is poised to bounce back faster than the rest of Europe. Plus, since they allowed community spread of the virus to occur among the young and healthy all summer long (as recommended by The Great Barrington Declaration) they aren't seeing the dramatic second wave which is now striking the rest of Europe.
Sweden is the counterfactual control case proving that not only did lockdowns not meet their stated goal of stopping the virus, they've actual set counties and states up for greater health and economic consequences down the road.
Keep as eye on Florida and New York this winter. Florida seems to be taking the Swedish path, where as, tragically, New York wasted an entire summer locked down preventing spread among the young and it will cost them in the coming months. If New York locks down again does Cuomo get to write a second book?
Anyway, 0 and 2…