Trouble in Tamba Bay?
On "Super Spreaders" and Covid Variants
Maybe you’ve seen it in the news today, but our media betters seem very concerned about the scenes in Tampa Bay post Super Bowl victory in which throngs of mask-less fans were seen celebrating in the streets, and some seemed convinced this would be the next "Super Spreader" event. This was especially concerning given the "dreaded" UK Variant allegedly on the loose in Florida. I'd be happy to ease any of your concerns and tell you not to worry about what happens next.
You only have to look back about a month to Tuscaloosa, Alabama's post College Football Championship game for similar celebratory scenes. What happened next? Well it's been one month and cases and hospitalizations in Alabama are down by over 50%! This was the same effect we saw in Miami on New Year's Eve, Notre Dame in November and countless other times this year.
This really shouldn't come as a surprise either. A year into this pandemic there is still no robust real world evidence that masks prevent spread, especially outdoors where as we have found the virus doesn't appear to spread very easily. The trajectory of this virus is driven by broader trends such as seasonality and the build up of community resistance. It's why lockdowns don't work. And why the current downward case trends in non-lockdown Florida won't be bucked by Sunday night's celebrations.
And as for how the UK Variant might factor into this? We are still waiting to see it's effect at all. We've been told that the variant is on the loose in South Florida and Southern California and spreading like mad. But if you look at those areas all you see is a declining virus. In LA County test positivity percent and Hospitalizations are down by 50% in the last month, cases are down by almost 70%!
In South Beach it's the same story, Cases and Hospitalizations in Miami-Dade County are down and the leading indicator, incidence of CLI (Covid Like Illness) at hospitals, is down by 50% since early December.
All this to say that aside from click bait headlines, and concerned interviews from CBS's favorite Pfizer board member, these "extra-spready variants" don't seem to be all that "extra-spready". The last month has given us great news on the Covid front with cases falling across the county. It's time to reject the media's fear narrative and join in life's celebrations.
Anyway 0 and 2…
Update February 22rd, 2021:
Updating the story from two weeks ago regarding the Super “Spreader" Bowl. Remember all the breathless media coverage that all the mask-less party goers in Tampa would cause a super spreader event? Well it's been two weeks, and... Nope! Cases in Tampa, Florida and the county at large continue to plummet:
