The Illusion of Control
Rebutting Hugh Hewitt
A recent Op Ed by Hugh Hewitt in the WaPo by Hugh Hewitt claims that a state of “virus complacency” has befalling the US and that we need “extraordinary caution” and he promotes vaccine mandates and to stop possible “dangerous variants” which could be “strike at young people as measles did, or healthy young adults as the 1918 influenza did”. I encourage everyone to read the entire opionion, then return here for my rebuttal:
When Hugh Hewitt argues that we must quickly vaccinate our entire population to prevent more Covid variants and vanquish this virus before it becomes more lethal or escapes vaccines, he suffers from the Illusion of Control.
We humans have a tendency to overestimate our abilities to control world events. As Americans, this is especially true since our country is a world superpower with an outsized presence in world politics. We see a situation or a problem that can be solved, and the tools to solve it, and our over-optimistic minds does the rest. We see this with gamblers, sports fans, and all too often with utopian politicians.
The Illusion of Control is a powerful tool which motivates us to persist with tasks even when they might otherwise seem unachievable. And unfortunately, it has infected the minds of all too many when it comes to Covid.
Let's start with some simple math. There are around 100 million US adults eligible for the vaccines who still haven't gotten it, and at this point close to half of them have some form of natural immunity. On the other hand there are over 5 billion people in the rest of the world who have yet to be vaccinated.
If a new, more deadly variant were to arise where would it come from? The odds would say it's around 100 times more likely to come from outside the US. We can't even control our own population, now we have to get the entire world on board?!
So, IF we could somehow rid the US of Covid, what would we do then? Seal off our borders until every last soul on the planet is vaccinated? It ain't working out so well in Australia and I'm guessing Ol' Kamala isn't up to the task anyway...
And ridding the US of Covid is a BIG IF!
Covid has saturated itself across the entire US, to rid it now would take a long, gargantuan, years long effort, and we don't even know if it's possible. Even with an effective, ubiquitous vaccine, we still haven't gotten rid of measles for instance. Look at the experience of Israel this summer. Only 14% of the adult population remains unvaccinated, and yet cases are still rising, including among the vaccinated population. What level of vaccination will do? 90%, 99%? The experience of Israel shows that even 110% might not do enough...
So we need super high, near 100% vaccination compliance to maybe have a chance, but then there's the question of kids. You wanna vaccinate my children?, well you better come armed! Because they don't need it, and they won't be getting it anytime soon just to fulfill some quixotic quest of bureaucrats with delusions of grandeur. And I'm not the only parent that feels this way by far.
So just keeping track... To rid the world of Covid we have to:
Force everyone to take the vaccine, including all the children (I hope it's safe for them)
Lock off our borders until every other country on earth does the same.
Then hope against hope that the virus doesn't find an animal reservoir to hide out in or evolve in the meantime in which case we have to start from scratch...
Good Luck!
This might all sound terrible, but there is some good news.
Will a variant evolve that escapes the vaccine? Yes, eventually, but even if the vaccine loses effectiveness it will still offer some protection against worse outcomes. Isn't that the point? We are already seeing this to an extent as we speak.
Will a variant make Covid more deadly? Probably not. The science of viral evolution finds that viruses are much more likely to become less deadly even as they become more contagious. The early data appears to show that this is the case with Delta, and it will likely hold true for future variants as well.
Furthermore, the most likely long term outcome for Covid is that everyone will initially get it as a child, with mild to zero symptoms. Then when they encounter it again throughout adulthood their preexisting immunity will fight it off making severe outcomes a rarity. We already have this. We call it a cold...
How worried are you that a variant of rhinovirus will appear next year and wipe out half the neighborhood. I bet it won't happen, but I guess I can't guarantee it either.
The Illusion of Control is so appealing, because it is very frustrating and frankly emasculating to admit when we don't have complete power over a situation. Yet in too many avenues in life we let it blind us. Be it economics, social policy, foreign policy, or even interpersonal relationships, we believe we have the power to direct society and the people around us to our will. Typically we libertarians are better than most at knowing better to stand back, knowing that strict intervention will only make a situation worse. I believe this is one of those situations.
Anyway 0 and 2...