The Covid End Game
As Covid cases continue to ebb and with more vaccines being delivered every day, it’s time to start discussing how and when this will end and if things will ever return to normal. Here's how I see the Covid End Game:
Some will say this ends when we reach "Covid Zero" and we've eradicated the disease from the face of the Earth for good. This is a fool's errand, likely not even possible, and we would destroy what is left of the world's economy in the attempt. It's also counter productive, as instead of zero Covid the Covid End Game is Endemic Covid. The disease will continue to spread around the world and become the 5th endemic Coronvirus that we will deal with rather easily every Cold/Flu season.
I say we'll deal with it easily because we are already seeing the trend. Areas hit with a wave prior to the fall, such as New York City or Florida have seen excess deaths this fall/winter not far off from a harsh flu season, not the massive numbers they saw in their first waves. And this is prior to any effects from the vaccines. Once the elderly are vaccinated, and natural immunity continues to build to 30 to 50% as it is in many places we will no longer see pandemic waves of infection. With the majority of our most vulnerable protected by some form of immunity, the need for lockdown measures ( to whatever extent there were any) cease to exist.
So what does this mean for normality? It means it's not far off. If you look at places in the county taking a rational approach, Florida being the best example, most of what we call "not normal" they have already removed. (no mask mandates, open schools, bars and restaurants open, gathering allowed) As we enter the Spring and cases continue to subside, and at this point they are subsiding across the country regardless of measures taken this winter, places like Florida will lead the way, continuing to open, and the rest of the county will slowing follow.
There will continue to be "spikes" and "hot spots" including next fall, but these will be localized, and concentrated in areas that had not been hard hit previously. And they will be far less deadly than what we are seeing now. There will still be talk of "New Variants'', and next year's Flu shot will likely come paired with a Covid booster, but Vaccines alone will not end the spread. Natural immunity combined with vaccines will temper Covid to being just another bug you might catch during Flu season.
The last thing to take us back to normality: ending the media panic. We are all going to get Covid, likely multiple times throughout our lives. It'll just be like another cold/flu virus. We need to stop treating it like the plague, stop treating every new "variant" like a new pandemic, turn off the hysteria and live our lives. And as cases ebb this spring, we must look to the states that lead the way, and demand from our state leaders that they follow.
Anyway 0 and 2...