South Africa Omicron Update

Just a week ago I implored readers not to fall for the “Mild Omicron Trap”, since one’s rights are not contingent on the level of severity of any given variant. This was not to suggest anything definitive about Omicron’s level of severity, but simply to state that irregardless, it shouldn’t change the argument over removing Covid restrictions:

“If we ground our argument that additional Covid restrictions aren't needed based on Omicron's anecdotal mildness we may be grounding our argument on quicksand. If and when it turns out that Omicron is indeed of similar severity to other variants we will have played right into the hands of our Would Be Public Health Dictators.

So don't play the game.”

Don't Fall for the "Mild Omicron Trap"

Here’s what the data out of South Africa looked like a week ago (with hospitalization lagged 3 days, deaths lagged 10 days):

(hospital admits laged by 3 days and Covid deaths by 10 days)

One week later here's what the lagged data looks like:

Cases have decoupled from hospitalizations, and Covid deaths haven't budged! While some uptick is Covid deaths seems inevitable, it's safe to say the early reports are accurate. What we are seeing in South Africa is a much milder wave.

The only question left is why?

Is it truly the case that mild Omicron is responsible?, or has South Africa just been immunized by three past waves of Covid and now seeing an endemic wave of mild breakthrough cases in previously infected individuals? We'll need to see the same situation replicated in other countries to know for sure.

It could be milder but their are other hypotheses:

PLC @Humble_Analysis

Based upon the return of the flu in this region, my guess is that enough people have been infected that covid has become endemic in this region and omicron is merely the first of many future seasonal waves (which will all be relatively harmless). This may not hold in Europe.

My eyes are now turned to the UK. They got walloped pretty badly last winter, and now Omicron is on the rise there. In just a few weeks we'll likely know if their Omicron experience is more like South Africa or not.

In the mean time, tune out the media panic. There’s certainly no evidence to date that Omircon has changed things for the worse. Keep calm and push for normalcy!

Anyway 0 and 2…