Keep Calm and Carry On As the Next Covid Wave Comes
Ignore Fauci, Instead Focus on What You Can Control
There’s growing concern building in some circles over the potential of a future Covid surge of the BA.2 Omicron variant. Big media outlets such have the New York Time has been chock full of headlines warning that another surge will disrupt our lives.
BA.2 have certainly been on the move in Europe where many counties have seen a second wave this winter:
After two straight years where an early Covid surge in Europe preceded a spring Covid surge in the Northeast and Midwest of the US, I'd say it would be foolish to bet against the same thing happening again this year. I’d guess we will likely see it very soon.
The leading indicator of Covid surges is percent positive Covid incidence in Emergency Department visits. This metric is still trending down nationwide to new pandemic lows:
At the same time the Northeast and Midwest regions it has essentially leveled off, and I suspect we will see a rise again in the next week or two indicating the beginning of the next wave.
The question isn’t if there we be future waves of Covid, of course we will. The real question is should we care?
If you listen to Fauci we need to keep our guard up since "it is no time to declare victory"...
Fauci is still flogging vaccines and boosters long after most of us have figured out Covid vaccines don’t prevent transmission at all.
Then there are folks like editor of MedPage Today and noted Covid-hawk Jeremy Faust arguing:
"The best way to avoid the next wave is to assume it will be bad unless we do stuff"
In fact it's the exact opposite. The best way to avoid the hysteria of the next Covid wave is to admit that "doing stuff" won't have any effect on the next wave.
Think of this Covid hysteria as societal level stress. One of the best ways to avoid stress in your daily life is to avoid worrying about the things you cannot control. Likewise, at a societal level we have no ability to control the spread and transmission of Covid, and we cannot prevent the next wave whenever it comes. For these reasons any energy spent worrying about Covid cases, or imposing theatrical restrictions to "stop Covid" is just wasted effort that fosters societal level stress.
Notably the Biden administration might finally be on board with this concept, given that noted Covid hysteric and administration mouthpiece Dr. Leana Wen wrote yesterday in a Washington Post Op Ed that:
Instead of worrying about cases, focus on the things you can control. Through either youth, health, or immunity you can greatly reduce your risk of poor Covid outcomes. Really having any one of these three things is enough to reduce the risk of Covid to that of other routine risks in life.
You can't control your age, but you can have tremendous control to improve your health through diet, exercise, and supplementation. Likewise you can increase your immunity with vaccination/boosters. At a societal level we can also work to make treatments for Covid more widely available. These are productive efforts which might actually make a difference, everything else is just theatre.
As I wrote in December, the Ending of Epidemics are by Nature Political, not scientific. Covid isn't over when Fauci says it is, it's over when we all ignore it and move on with life. It's over when we allow the next wave to crest without resorting to restrictions, histrionics, and hysteria. Let's hope that ending comes soon.
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