Explaining the US Life Expectancy Drop
A Graphical Illumination of the Root Causes.
The news of the day is that US Life Expectancy has taken the biggest drop since 1945, thanks to the pandemic. I don’t think it’s as simple as that. Take a look at these three graphs which do an incredible job illuminating the root causes.
All graphs via USMortality.com
First, Total US deaths:
Notice the dramatic rise in March 2020 when Covid first exploded in the northeast. Then notice the two additional humps in line with the Summer Covid wave in the southern US and the fall/winter wave which hit the entire US. Also notice that even during the June and September lulls there is still an excess of deaths each week, and even in 2021 deaths are still hovering stubbornly above baseline.
Next, let's narrow this down to the group hit hardest by Covid, the 85+ age group:
Here again you see the three distinct waves. These are clearly Covid deaths! And notice that during June and September there were very few excess deaths. Now notice that since February 2021 there have been no excess deaths in this age group, in fact there is a dearth! These are "pulled forward" deaths, folks in ill health who were taken early by Covid, but who likely would have died soon after anyway.
Lastly, we look at an age group not at significant risk from Covid, the 25 to 44 age group:
This graph is shocking! There is a sharp rise in March 2020, but this time there are no distinct waves. We see persistent excess deaths over baseline by over 25%! These don't appear to be Covid deaths. If they were, they would ebb and flow with Covid prevalence like the 85+ group did. These sadly appear to be deaths caused by the disruption to life caused during the pandemic. Disruptions that were largely caused not by the virus itself but from our response to it. In a word, these are LOCKDOWN deaths!
And recall how life expectancy is calculated. A healthy 30 year old has a life expectancy 10 to 20 times that of a 90 year old with comorbidities. Thus the death of a 30 year old has over 10 times the impact on overall US life expectancy!
Want to know which county had no excess deaths in 2020 among non-seniors?
Anyway 0 and 2...